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Africa Viral Hemorrhagic Fever Pandemic Potential Estimates


General Info
Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME)
Algeria (DZA)
Angola (AGO)
Benin (BEN)
Botswana (BWA)
Burundi (BDI)
Cameroon (CMR)
Chad (TCD)
Comoros (COM)
Congo (COG)
Djibouti (DJI)
Egypt (EGY)
Eritrea (ERI)
Ethiopia (ETH)
Gabon (GAB)
Guinea (GIN)
Kenya (KEN)
Lesotho (LSO)
Liberia (LBR)
Libya (LBY)
Malawi (MWI)
Mali (MLI)
Namibia (NAM)
Niger (NER)
Nigeria (NGA)
Rwanda (RWA)
Senegal (SEN)
Somalia (SOM)
Sudan (SDN)
Eswatini (SWZ)
Togo (TGO)
Tunisia (TUN)
Uganda (UGA)
Zambia (ZMB)
Zimbabwe (ZWE)
Coverage type 
Time period covered 
10/2017 - 10/2017
Data type
  • Subnationally representative

Estimates were produced for three stages underlying the potential of widespread epidemics for four viral hemorrhagic fevers (VHFs) in Africa: Ebola virus disease, Marburg virus disease, Lassa fever, and Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever. Stage 1, index case potential, assesses populations at risk of infection due to spillover from zoonotic hosts or vectors, identifying where index cases could present. Stage 2, outbreak potential, measures potential for secondary spread amongst humans within specific communities. Stage 3, epidemic potential, evaluates possible spread of local outbreaks nationally, regionally, and internationally. Estimates were generated at the second national administrative division (admin 2) level and as indices on a 0-10 scale, with 10 representing the worst outcome. This dataset includes these estimates in shapefiles and CSV files for admin 2 locations across Africa for each pathogen in each stage.