Global Rheumatic Heart Disease Endemicity Index (RHDEI) Estimates and Forecasts 1990-2041
This dataset includes estimates and forecasts created using a new methodology for conceptualizing locations at risk for high RHD morbidity and mortality, or burden, globally. Researchers utilized a set of covariates produced by the Global Burden of Disease Study from 1990-2021 via principal component analysis to create the rheumatic heart disease endemicity index (RHDEI). They then We then demonstrated how the RHDEI could be used in forecasting for targeted policy change with the use of an ensemble time series forecasting model, creating 20 years of estimates through 2041. The results were evaluated via out-of-sample forecasting to estimate model performance and compared to a naive model to assess goodness-of-fit.