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Global Life Expectancy, All-Cause Mortality, and Cause-Specific Mortality Forecasts 2016-2040


General Info
Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME)
Coverage type 
Time period covered 
01/2016 - 12/2040
Data type

IHME researchers leveraged data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study to produce life expectancy, all-cause mortality, and cause-specific mortality forecasts for 195 countries and territories from 2016-2040. In addition to reference scenarios, alternative “better” and “worse” scenarios were produced. Estimates for life expectancy at birth, and deaths and years of life lost (YLLs) for 250 causes by cause, age, and sex are available from GBD Foresight. Estimates for deaths and YLLs attributable to each GBD risk factor and summary exposure values (SEV) by risk are also available. Select tables published in The Lancet in October 2018 in "Forecasting life expectancy, years of life lost, and all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 250 causes of death: reference and alternative scenarios for 2016–40 for 195 countries and territories" are available for download in this record.