Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 (GBD 2021) - Nonfatal Health Outcomes 10 (Multiple Sclerosis - Non-melanoma skin cancer (basal cell and squamous cell carcinoma))

Multiple Sclerosis

• MR-BRT Sex Ratio Analysis
• Split both-sex data
• Study design bias analysis in MR-BRT
• Adjust non-reference data
• Age-split broad-age data-points
• Meta-analyses
• Severity Split
• Dismod-MR 2.1
• Comorbidity correction (COMO)
• Format codes Map to modeling causes
• Convert claims to cases Apply duration window Apply age and sex restrictions Aggregate

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Myelodysplastic, myeloproliferative, and other hematological neoplassms (MDS/MPN)

• Comorbidity correction (COMO)
• Dismod-MR 2.1

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Neck pain

• Case deifinition crosswalk
• MAD outliering
• Age-sex splitting
• Comorbidity correction (COMO)
• DisMod-MR 2.1
• Map SF-12 to GBD disability weights
• Regression to estimate disability weight by cause in survey respondents controlling for comorbidity
• Severity splits

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Neonatal Encephalopathy

• Impairment estimation
  • Apply same prevalence to all ages less than 1
  • Adjustment for delayed diagnoses
  • Adjustment for multiple admissions
  • MR-BRT for impairment proportion
  • Subtract mild and moderate proportion from 1
  • Split prevalence by impairment
  • Apply same prevalence to all ages (mild)
  • Subtract mild and asymptomatic
• Neonatal prevalence estimation
  • Identify MR-BRT outliers
  • Age-sex split
  • ST-GPR
  • Neonatal prevalence data-- derive EMR
  • Literature-- convert CFR to EMR
  • Model MR-BRT EMR
  • Life table model of neonatal prevalence
  • Convert standardized mortality ratio data to excess mortality ratio estimates
  • DisMod-MR 2.1 prevalence model for excess mortality > 0
• YLD estimation
  • Moderate to severe impairment splits
  • Mild impairment splits
  • Comorbidity correction (COMO)

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Neonatal preterm birth

• Standardized mortality ratio (SMR) of cerebral palsy
• Convert SMR to EMR based on all-cause mortality estimates
• Fixed-effects regression using log neonatal mortality rate
• Subtract mild and moderate proportion from 1
• Severity split
• Comorbidity correction (COMO)

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Neonatal sepsis

• Neonatal prevalence estimation
  • Adjustment of hospital data to account for multiple admissions, delayed diagnoses, and Healthcare Access and Quality
  • Convert prevalence data to incidence
  • Crosswalk claims and literature data to hospital data using MR-BRT - derived adjustment factors
  • Age- and sex-split incidence data
  • MR-BRT model to identify outliers
  • Calculate mortality to incidence ratio
  • Model mortality incidence ratio (MR-BRT)
  • Calculate neonatal prevalence with life table
  • ST-GPR model of incidence
• Impairment estimation
  • Meta-analysis of mild, moderate, severe impairment proportions
  • Fixed-effects regression of CFR
  • Severity splits (asymptomatic, mild, moderate/severe)
  • Convert standardized mortality ratio data to excess mortality ratio estimates
  • DisMod-MR 2.1 impairment model
• YLD estimation
  • Mild impairment sequelae splits
  • Moderate to severe impairment sequelae splits
  • Comorbidity correction (COMO)

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Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease\Non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NFLP\NASH)

• DisMod-MR 2.1
• Comorbidity correction (COMO)
• Sex splitting
• Age splitting
• Apply alcohol exclusions

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Non-fatal COVID-19

• Survey data
  • Apply mild and moderate proportions
  • Apply algorithms to extract long COVID proportions in each COVID case severity
  • Crosswalk: Adjust data without pre-COVID health status
  • MR-BRT: Estimate severity proportions among community and hosp/ICU cases
  • Adjust severity proportions to sum to 100%
• Scientific literature
  • Adjust for cases missed by RT-PCR using seroprevalence surveys
  • Estimate asymptomatic proportion of infections using MR-BRT
• IHME covid model
  • Start with the IHME covid model's infections, deaths, ICU, and hospital admissions
  • Subtract asymptomatic infections
• Prevalence
  • Apply durations presymp, asymp, hosp, ICU; censor if past 1 Jan 2021
• Post-acute prep
  • Subtract deaths from cases
• Short-term YLDs
  • Multiply prevalence by disability weights to get YLDs
• • Apply nursing home proportion adjustment (deaths)
  • MR-BRT: Estimate duration of long COVID in community and hosp/ICU cases
  • Apply proportions to at-risk community, hosp, ICU cases
  • Sum long COVID incidence across COVID case severity
  • Apply durations to community and hosp/ICU cases
  • Sum long COVID prev across COVID case severity
  • Comorbidity correction (COMO)
• Administrative data
  • Calculate excess prevalence of long COVID among each COVID case severity
• Symptom clusters
  • MR-BRT: Estimate prevalence of >=1 symptom cluster among cmmunity, hosp, ICU cases
  • MR-BRT: Estimate prevalence of each symptom cluster or overlap among cmmunity, hosp, ICU cases
  • Calculate mutually exclusive proportions of each symptom cluster and overlap
  • Apply severity distributions to post-acute cognitive and respiratory

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Non-melanoma skin cancer (basal cell and squamous cell carcinoma)

• Mapped duration of BCC\SCC between 1-5 years based on ATC
• Split C44 into basal cell and squamous cell carcinoma based on proportion from literature
• Comorbidity correction (COMO)
• Dismod-MR 2.1
• Severity split into 3 levels using MEPs

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