Africa Viral Hemorrhagic Fever Pandemic Potential Estimates

Estimates were produced for three stages underlying the potential of widespread epidemics for four viral hemorrhagic fevers (VHFs) in Africa: Ebola virus disease, Marburg virus disease, Lassa fever, and Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever. Stage 1, index case potential, assesses populations at risk of infection due to spillover from zoonotic hosts or vectors, identifying where index cases could present. Stage 2, outbreak potential, measures potential for secondary spread amongst humans within specific communities. Stage 3, epidemic potential, evaluates possible spread of local outbreaks nationally, regionally, and internationally. Estimates were generated at the second national administrative division (admin 2) level and as indices on a 0-10 scale, with 10 representing the worst outcome. This dataset includes these estimates in shapefiles and CSV files for admin 2 locations across Africa for each pathogen in each stage.

Keywords

Ebola, Neglected tropical diseases

Citation

Contributors

Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME)

Funders

Paul G. Allen Family Foundation

Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation (BMGF)

Wellcome Trust

Department for International Development (DFiD) (United Kingdom)

Publisher

Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME)

Publication year

2017

Suggested citation

Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME). Africa Viral Hemorrhagic Fever Pandemic Potential Estimates. Seattle, United States of America: Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), 2017.

DOI

https://doi.org/10.6069/RDCC-SR23

Files (22)

Terms and conditions

Data made available for download on IHME Websites can be used, shared, modified or built upon by non-commercial users in accordance with the IHME FREE-OF-CHARGE NON-COMMERCIAL USER AGREEMENT. For more information (and inquiries about commercial use), visit IHME Terms and Conditions.

Public files

File	Size
Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever: Stage 1, Index case potential - Shapefiles	61.09 MB
Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever: Stage 2, Outbreak potential - Shapefiles	61.13 MB
Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever: Stage 3a, Epidemic potential (local) - Shapefiles	61.13 MB
Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever: Stage 3b, Epidemic potential (global) - Shapefiles	61.12 MB
Ebola virus disease: Stage 1, Index case potential - Shapefiles	60.99 MB
Ebola virus disease: Stage 2, Outbreak potential - Shapefiles	61.01 MB
Ebola virus disease: Stage 3a, Epidemic potential (local) - Shapefiles	61.01 MB
Ebola virus disease: Stage 3b, Epidemic potential (global) - Shapefiles	61.01 MB
Lassa fever: Stage 1, Index case potential - Shapefiles	61 MB
Lassa fever: Stage 2, Outbreak potential - Shapefiles	61.02 MB
Lassa fever: Stage 3a, Epidemic potential (local) - Shapefiles	61.02 MB
Lassa fever: Stage 3b, Epidemic potential (global) - Shapefiles	61.02 MB
Marburg virus disease: 1, Index case potential - Shapefiles	61 MB
Marburg virus disease: Stage 2, Outbreak potential - Shapefiles	61.02 MB
Marburg virus disease: Stage 3a, Epidemic potential (local) - Shapefiles	61.02 MB
Marburg virus disease: Stage 3b, Epidemic potential (global) - Shapefiles	61.02 MB
Outbreak receptivity covariate - Shapefiles	61.16 MB
All pathogens, stages, and outbreak receptivity covariate - CSV files	2.48 MB
Codebooks - CSV files	151.5 KB
Methods and Results Annexes	25.7 MB
Data Release Information Sheet	866.57 KB
Data Input Sources	3.11 KB

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GHDx Entry last modified on: Sep 23, 2022

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Africa Viral Hemorrhagic Fever Pandemic Potential Estimates

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