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United States COVID-19 Scenarios 2020-2021


General Info
Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME)
Coverage type 
Time period covered 
02/2020 - 02/2021
Data type
  • Subnationally representative

This dataset represents estimates of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic across the 50 U.S. States and DC through 28th February 2021. Projections for total and daily deaths, daily infections, and testing are included with hospital resource use statistics. In total five scenarios are presented: a 'plausible reference scenario,' which assumes social distancing mandates are re-imposed for 6 weeks when a threshold daily death rate of 8 per million is reached; a 'mandates easing' scenario, where mandates are not re-imposed; a 'universal mask-use' scenario, where mask utilization reaches 95% usage in public in every location; a less comprehensive mask scenario of 85% public use of masks (‘plausible reference + 85% mask-use’ scenario); and a scenario of universal mask wearing in the absence of any additional NPI (‘mandate easing + universal mask use’). These projections are produced with a model that incorporates data on observed COVID-19 deaths, hospitalizations, and cases, as well as multiple covariates.

Publication year 
Suggested citation 
Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME). United States COVID-19 Scenarios 2020-2021. Seattle, United States of America: Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), 2020.